Lula’s Runoff Win Prompts Debate Over Prediction Market Odds

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s runoff win has traders debating how to read prediction market odds after Flávio Bolsonaro was favored earlier in the day, despite losing the vote. Polymarket and Kalshi priced Bolsonaro at about 80% earlier Sunday. On Kalshi, his odds stayed above 80% for two days before shifting during the count: Lula’s implied chance rose from 20% to 70%, while Bolsonaro’s fell to 31%. Lula received 51.8% of valid votes, while Bolsonaro received 48.2%. The win secured Lula a fourth term.