Election Odds Can Still Be Moved for $3,500 as Midterm Betting Hits $431 Million

Exclusive: With $431 million wagered on congressional races, ACDC researcher Michelle Kendler-Kretsch questions whether Kalshi’s transparency measures tell voters enough about the money behind election odds. With Americans heading to the polls on Tuesday, $431 million has already been wagered on congressional prediction markets. For all that money, the odds in most of those markets can still be shifted for less than $3,500. The Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) found that 96% of congressional markets with live order books could be shifted five cents for $3,500 or less, even as trading activity increased ahead of the midterms .