Bitcoin’s win rate rebounds as post–midterm pattern boosts S&P 500

Bitcoin has begun to reverse a long-running relative underperformance versus US equities, with on-chain analytics firm Glassnode reporting that BTC outperformed the S&P 500 in 50% of US trading sessions over a rolling 90-session window. The change is notable because Glassnode says Bitcoin ’s per-session “win rate” has not exceeded 50% since March 2025, meaning most of the past year has featured more sessions where BTC lagged the S&P 500 than it beat it. Key takeaways Glassnode data shows Bitcoin beat the S&P 500 in 50% of US trading sessions over the past 90 sessions.