US Treasury Cash Swing Sets Bitcoin’s Real Liquidity Test

Key Takeaways Q1 2027 borrowing estimate: $800B, including $150B rebuild. TGA stood at $1,016 billion on October 28. Reserves fell $74B as TGA rose $70B. Refunding details due November 4, 13:30 UTC. In its November 2 borrowing estimates , the U.S. Treasury put privately held net marketable borrowing at $618 billion for October–December 2026 and $800 billion for January–March 2027. Six Months of Borrowing, Almost No Net Change in Cash The fourth-quarter figure is $10 billion below Treasury’s August estimate, but only because October began with $34 billion more cash than assumed: $984 billion against $950 billion.